The National Association of Realtors predicted that home sales will rise next year to 5.7 million, up from last month's prediction of 5.69 million.
Meanwhile, pending home sales in Greater Cincinnati are outpacing national figures, according to the Cincinnati Area Board of Realtors, which represents about 80 percent of the region's market. Pending sales are contracts; closings typically occur 30 to 45 days after a contract is written.
The revised national monthly forecast, which followed nine straight months of downward revisions, calls for U.S. existing-home sales to fall 12.5 percent this year to 5.67 million, down from 6.48 million last year and the lowest level since 2002. Last month, the association predicted that 5.66 million existing homes would be sold this year.
Numerous other economists, however, are far less optimistic than the trade group. They predict weak sales and falling prices through next year and beyond, and emphasize that those problems could worsen if the economy sinks into a recession.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, predicted at a housing forum last week that if the economy slips into recession or if efforts to prevent foreclosures don't pick up substantially, the housing-market downturn could last through the end of the decade.
The trade group's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, cited job growth and the replacement of subprime lenders to borrowers with weak credit with government-backed loans as reasons for the improved outlook.
"Despite over-exaggerated negative coverage on the housing conditions, many local markets are actually seeing price increases," Yun said at a media briefing in Washington. "Mortgage availability is improving"
The national group also said the median price for U.S. existing homes - the point at which half sold for more and half for less - will sink by 1.9 percent to $217,600 this year and rise 0.3 percent next year to $218,300.
Locally, the median sale price in Greater Cincinnati was $129,900 in October, a 5.6 percent decline from the same month in 2006. Northern Kentucky saw a 2.6 percent drop to $131,900 for the same period.
From January through October, home sales for Greater Cincinnati, Northern Kentucky and Southeastern Indiana totaled 25,348 - an 11.2 percent drop, compared to the same period last year, according to local boards of Realtors.
In Greater Cincinnati, Realtors reported Monday that 1,814 sale contracts were pending in October. The figure is down 7.8 percent from 2006, compared with the 18.4 percent drop in pending sales in October nationally.
"The October pending numbers reflect a local market that has been consistently performing all year at about 88 to 90 percent of normal," said Tom Steele, president of the Cincinnati Realtors.
Higher-than-normal inventory of unsold homes has continued to plague the local market since January, but Steele said Realtors are seeing improvements.
In October, inventories decreased slightly to a 9.83-month supply. The figure represents the anticipated time that it would take for all the homes currently on the market to sell if no houses were added or taken off the market.
A balanced market - or one that is favorable to buyers and sellers - typically carries a five- to six-month supply, according to the Cincinnati Realtors.
Nationally, the supply in October was at 10.8 months, the national association said.
"As the inventory (of homes on the market) continues to drop to normal levels, a recovery period will begin, and the market will move from the current buyers market toward a balanced market," Steele said.
Real Estate Designers offers totally innovative solutions for your software development, Internet programming, real estate web design and hosting needs. Our service includes domain name registration and real estate web design. Real Estate Designers provides the complete solution including design, application development and marketing.
source: enquirer.com
No comments:
Post a Comment